A French team of physicians reported this week at the annual meeting of the Radiological Society of North America that it has developed a new computer model that uses magnetic resonance imaging to predict whether a birth will go smoothly or have problems.

Olivier Ami MD told a session of the RSNA meeting in Chicago that his team applied the new software, called Predibirth, to 24 MR images of pregnant women, and created a three-dimensional model of the woman's pelvis and the fetus. Using these images, Predibirth calculated the likelihood that the babies could find their way out of their mothers' bodies without assistance.

Of the 24 women studied, 13 delivered normally. Predibirth had predicted normal births for all of these women. Predibirth had tagged three women who opted for elective Cesarean sections as being at risk for dystocia.

Of five women who had emergency C-sections, Predibirth had predicted three might have problems — all three involved instructed labor. However, Predibirth had given thumbs up to two of the mothers, whose problems involved heart arrhythmia.

Predibirth had declared "mildly favorable" three additional moms who wound up resorting to vacuum extraction during birth.

Not perfect, but not bad.

"With this virtual childbirth software, the majority of C-sections could be planned rather than emergency, and difficult instrumental extractions might disappear in the near future," Dr. Ami told his audience in Chicago.

Dr. Ami M.D. is an obstetrician in the radiology department at Antoine Béclère Hospital, Université Paris Sud, France.

Image by Petteri Sulonen

Nora is going to walk or take buses as much as she can this weekend, and being from Chicago, she is comfortable with those activities. But many Angelenos are famously more car-bound than she is.

Los Angeles commuter traffic

Crosstown airline flights between the suburbs of Long Beach and Burbank are sold out this weekend and the police department is asking celebrities to urge their Twitter followers to avoid the expressway and, indeed, to drive in the city as little as possible.

But Jenny Benjamin, writing in The Stir today, brings up an interesting and, to her and other expectant moms, urgent point: What happens if your baby decides to be born in L.A. this weekend?

Pregnant with twins, less than two weeks shy of her due date, a 30-minute drive away ("without traffic") from the hospital she carefully chose for its neonatal intensive care unit, Benjamin considers the possibility of an early labor and aks, "For the love of all things good and holy, what am I going to do?!?!"

Will her husband wind up delivering the twins (one of whom is in a transverse position) on the side of the road? Should she call an ambulance? "Ambulances aren't hovercrafts -- they're going to get stuck in the same traffic!" Benjamin notes.

Her doctor lives close to the hospital. "Good to know at least one of us will be able to get there," she writes.

"Aargh, it's times like this that I really wish that Segways had caught on!" Benjamin frets.

The best solution, she notes, is not to have the babies this weekend. "I have about as much control over that as I do the traffic," Benjamin writes. "Maybe I should see how much my husband knows about home birthing."

Officially, it's still spring, though. Here is a poem by e. e. cummings that relates both to the season and to our topic here on Birth Story:

O sweet spontaneous
earth how often have
the
doting

fingers of
prurient philosophers pinched
and
poked

thee
,has the naughty thumb
of science prodded
thy

beauty        how
often have religions taken
thee upon their scraggy knees
squeezing and

buffeting thee that thou mightest conceive
gods
(but
true
to the incomparable
couch of death thy
rhythmic
lover

thou answerest

them only with

spring)

Until then, a donor had to be on-site at the time of a blood transfusion.

Bernard Fantus

Dr. Fantus also coined the term "blood bank," in an article in the Journal of the American Medical Association that year that set out the hospital's methodology in clear, understandable terms.

Other institutions swiftly developed their own blood-storage facilities, and helped themselves to Fantus's catchy term as well.

Cook County's blood-storage innovation came at a critical time, just a few years before the start of World War II, when blood donated by people thousands of miles from the battlefronts would make the difference between life and death for a great many injured Allied soldiers.

One man undertook to change that, Alexis Carrel, a student in Lyons who was appalled by Carnot's death, in his hometown, while a number of physicians stood by and watched.

But consider the problem — repairing a tiny, elastic, living tube, part of a network of tubes of different sizes and functions, so that it would retain its ability to channel many gallons of blood every day, birth to death, without a hitch.

The story is that Carrel — Dr. Carrel by 1900 — studied with Marie-Anne Leroudier, one of the most proficient needlewomen in Lyons (her work was exhibited at the Columbian Exposition in Chicago in 1893), learning to make minute, uniform stitches. He developed a triangular system that allowed him to rapidly close up a vein or artery end-to-end without having the stitches adhere to the opposite wall, ushering in the birth of vascular surgery.

Carrel came to the University of Chicago in 1904, where his prodigious 21 months' work as an assistant to G. N. Stewart at the Hull Laboratory laid the groundwork for transplantation surgery. That work was the basis for Carrel's becoming the first scientist working in the United States to win the Nobel Prize for medicine, in 1912. Carrel soon moved on to the Rockefeller Institute for Medical Research in New York.

(Carrel's collaborator at the U. of C., Charles Claude Guthrie, was miffed that he was not included in the Nobel Prize. Guthrie possibly lost points with the Nobel committee for his subsequent experiments in St. Louis with head transplants.)

Carrel was a complicated man, compassion and curiosity mixed up with arrogance and resentment. He was a eugenicist — that is, he subscribed to the false science of "perfecting" the human race by eliminating traits judged to be inferior — and he was also an enthusiastic believer in the miracle cures at the shrine at Lourdes. At the time of his death in 1944, in Paris, he was working on a project for the collaborationist Vichy government.

The 2009 annual meeting was in Chicago, and I attended as many sessions as I could -- I don't want my ideas about what is going on in obstetrics to stop with my own birth experiences. (Sadly, I won't be able to attend the San Francisco meeting.)

I learned a lot last May, but one thing stayed with me in particular, Dr. Robert Wachter's keynote address.

Robert Wachter MD

Dr. Wachter,  chief of the medical service at the University of California at San Franciso, among other titles, is one of the founders of the hospitalist movement, and an expert in patient safety.

He spoke about efforts to improve safety since 1999, when the Institute of Medicine released its landmark report, To Err Is Human, which revealed that as many as 98,000 people were dying from medical mistakes every year.

Dr. Wachter's message is important for the birth story because obstetricians are the doctors most often sued for malpractice. A 2003 ACOG survey showed that 76 percent of OB-GYNs have been sued at least once.

Many of them would say that if anything ever goes wrong with a birth, they are sued whether the mishap was their fault or not. Dr. Wachter agreed that "the blame game" is "not productive."

He said, "Medicine is too complex to be error free." Some other complex industries have better safety records, though, he said, often because they have developed "systems thinking," standardizing procedures and accepting that some mistakes are a natural part of the process.

The Chicago River, ready for the parade

From Chicago on St. Patrick's Day, here is our famous green river, dyed last Saturday for the big downtown parade, captured by my friend Bill Linden.

What does this have to do with the birth story? Well, nothing, but we of Irish descent just get the one day to celebrate, you know? Or, counting parade day and the festivities on the South Side on Sunday, three days, tops.

And Ireland does have the lowest maternal mortality rate in the world at last tally, with just one mother dying per 100,000 births in 2005.

That certainly is something to celebrate, and to remark upon.

Happy St. Patrick's Day!

Research teams from all over the country, and from other countries as well, reported on their investigations into conditions that jeopardize mothers' and babies' health in pregnancy.  Several important findings came out of the meeting. Here are just a few:

* A simple new urine test with a cool name, the "Congo Red Dot Test," appears to be able to predict and diagnose preeclampsia, a condition that can kill mothers and babies, cause birth defects, and is a major contributor to pre-term birth. A research team from the Yale University School of Medicine found that the test accurately predicted preeclampsia in 347 women in their study. Preeclampsia symptoms include hypertension and protein in the urine. The condition affects 5 to 10 percent of pregnancies. It is commonly treated by delivering the baby.

* One of every three pre-term births is caused by a "silent" infection inside the uterus. Now it appears some women and babies are genetically more susceptible to inflammatory infections, according to a study led by Roberto Romero MD, Chief of the Perinatology Research Branch at the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development. The study won an award from the March of Dimes, a nonprofit group that works to prevent birth defects, premature birth and infant mortality.

At the SMFM meeting, the Yale U. School of Medicine also presented the results of a couple of other investigations that might lead to a decrease in preterm births as well.